By Peter Francese
First quarter residential home sales in New Hampshire were 17 percent above 2011 and the highest they have been since 2007. Maybe it was the mild winter, or perhaps it was the rising stock market. Whatever it was, it may predict a very good year and the beginning of the end of this historically long period of flat home sales.
Every year for the past four years, first quarter residential home sales were in the narrow range of 1,675 and 1,900 units, and total sales for those years (2008 through 2011) never exceeded 10,800 units. During that same, four-year period, first quarter home sales averaged about 17 percent of the entire year’s sales.
First quarter home sales this year reached 2,223, the first time since 2007 that the number has exceeded 2,000. If that ends up being 17 percent of 2012 sales, the state would reach 13,076 homes sold in 2012, the most since 2006. If, as in 2007, first quarter sales end up being 20 percent of the year’s sales, we can expect about 11,100 homes sold in 2012, still higher than any year since 2007.
My view is that 2012 residential home sales will match the 12,000 sold back in 2007. Read more…